11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis

"The process of prioritising risks for further analysis or action by assessing and combining their probability of occurrence and impact."

The definition shown above in italics is taken from the Glossary of the Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK® Guide) – Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute Inc., 2013

Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK® Guide) – Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute Inc., 2013 Figure 11-8 Page 328

Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis

  • Prioritize risks for further analysis or action
  • Assess quality of risk data
  • Examine Risk Categories
  • Update Risk Register
  • Ranking
    • To evaluate the overall risk ranking for the project
    • To produce a list of prioritised risks

Qualitative tools:

  • Probability / impact risk rating matrix
  • Intuition / expertise
  • Scoring scales e.g.1 to 5; high-medium-low
  • Definitions of their meaning
  • Risk Urgency – those requiring near term responses
  • Can be combined with Ranking to give a final severity rating

Qualitative Risk Analysis Example

Probability Analysis

Category

Qualitative

Quantitative

A - Very high

Repeated incidents that could occur several times in the operating life of the facility

Probability of 1 event in 100 plant years or a frequency equal to 1 x 102 or greater

B - High

Isolated incidents that could occur limited times in the operating life of the facility

Probability of 1 event in 1000 plant years or a frequency equal to 1 x 10-2 to 1 x 10-3

C - Marginal

An incident occurring sometimes in similar or like facilities elsewhere in the world

Probability of 1 event in 10,000 plant years or a frequency equal to 1 x 10-3 to 1 x 10-4

D - Low

An incident that has occurred more than once in similar or like facilities

Probability of 1 event in 100,000 plant years or a frequency equal to 1 x 10-4 to 1 x 10-5

E - Very Low

Rare incident that has been heard of occurring in similar facilities

Probability of 1 event in 1,000,000 plant years or a frequency equal to 1 x 10-6 or lesser.

Risk reduction of hazardous chemical releases

Source: http://www.safetyonline.com/doc.mvc/RISK-BASED-APPROACH-FOR-HAZARD-DETECTION-Fire-0001

Presenting the Results

Method One – Tabular

Method Two – Graphical

Probability Impact Grid

Risks with low or moderate ratings are:

  • taken direct to Plan Risk Responses,
  • put onto a Watchlist to watch for changes
  • are typically not analyzed quantitatively

Probability Impact (P-I) Matrix

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